Cointegration analysis of the monthly time-series relationship between retail sales and average wages in Croatia


A dynamic econometric model of Croatian monthly retail sales and wages is estimated through testing sequential model reduction validity. Such an approach aims at developing well-performing and interpretable dynamic relationships as data-description models. In addition to the model in levels a more economically interpretable error correction model was estimated enabling direct evaluation of the short-run impact of wage change to retail change as well as the periodic adjustment to the long-run equilibrium. It was established that, both in the short-run and in the long run, retail sales respond to wages thus forming a stable dynamic relationship.